2008 Election and Statistical Effects Upon.

2008 Election and Statistical Effects Upon.

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Two past historical events have statistical implications for the current 2008 presidential election.  The first event is looking back in history to find the lowest approval rating of a national leader in a democracy.   It appears that Alejandro Toledo in 2004, President of Peru between 2001 and 2006 received single digit rating of 5 to 8 percent.

The reason for this effort in an attempt to figure out what is the lowest level any national leader can go, an artificial cellar floor.  This concept is to figure out what part of a society cannot be moved to vote disapproval.  Put another way, we try to find a statistical amount of people who will still support a ruler under the worst of circumstances.  This group of individuals is either brain dead, disconnected from world happenings, stupid, or honestly finding some redeeming value in the ruler.  We will call this statistical phenomenon, the bonehead factor.  Statistics is all about registering change in people’s attitudes and one can make a really slim case to discount these boneheads because they are cemented into their views.  Once we find this figure, we can then use it to figure out how really bad a particular ruler is by subtracting that amount.  As one convenient example, we have read reports that President Bush’s ratings have slid down to 31%.  We can take a huge leap and bring in the Peru factor of 5 to 8% even though that number comes from a completely different society.  If we subtract 5 to 8 percent points, we then get an actual national approval rating of 23 to 26 percent for President Bush.  This effort is to point out that statistics can be tweaked to reveal a bit more than what is first apparent.  I would not want to stand behind defending that approach, as it is a theory at this stage.

The second example is the Tom Bradley effect, also called the Wilder effect.  A very popular black American who was a successful mayor of Los Angeles ran for state governor in 1982.  He was ahead in the poles but lost the race.  The spread between the polling approval prior to the race and the subsequent percentage loss in the actual voter tally was about 3 percent.  Some people think this is a racial factor, white people not ready to pull the lever in favor of a minority when they enter the polling booth.  The 3 percent in 1982 has apparently diminished but we have not been able to find by how much.

The presidential race of 2008 brings in a large number of cultural, social, political, religious to mention a few.

The Republican Party is infected by Bush’s sick theology of governing and thus loosing large chunks of support in most statistical categories.  The bonehead factor, we first mentioned, might help the Republicans a bit and hurt Obama.  The next factor is the Bradley Effect.  Obviously Obama could loose some statistical percentage points.  Once one realizes these factors the reports one hears takes on different meanings.  It is imperative that Obama run ahead of McCain to thwart the Bonehead and Bradley effects.   This helps explain whey Obama campaign is still blasting full throttle up to the very end of the campaign.  This also explains why McCain camp might be running a really lame, much less energetic run for the presidency.  I for one would be appalled to really find out that the McCain strategists did a halfhearted effort because they counted on these statistical effects.   That would really be boneheaded on their part.  If Obama fails to win because the Bradley effect did come to fruition then that would be really sad for this nation.

The other outcome might take place.  If the poles put Obama way ahead of McCain and the Bradley effect drops his chances to a tie vote and these effects put the race into the courts and the Supreme Court does a replay of their last fiasco, the outcome might not end so peacefully.  This country already has a number of crises going on and to see our people make a move against the Supreme Court would just add another huge crisis for us to face.

Game Of Dominoes

Game Of Dominoes

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The supreme court decision that allegedly took the 2000 year presidential election out of the hands of the sovereign power, the people, and was wrestled away by that very body expected to protect the Constitution and in so doing took the responsibility of the fate of the country away from the people.  The unthinkable happened; the decision was made by the very judges hired to uphold the letter and intent of the Constitution.  The Constitution placed sovereign power firmly into the hands of the people.  This folly led to that putting in place a game of falling dominoes.  The past history has been a series of failures or falling dominoes, one domino hitting the next to fall the next domino next to it in a chain.  The Supreme Court put one domino on the table, that being deciding upon Bush as the ruler of the United States.  That domino began to fall when he trusted the United States into an illegitimate war.  The second domino to fall was that the war was so much an incompetent operation that the military found itself cemented in place, not able to extricate itself.

The next domino was the ruler taking steps to diminish the United States in stature by following ideology instead of seeking out unbiased analysis and devising policy according to facts.  The next domino to fall was the sovereign power, which slowly came around to understanding the ruler appointed by a group of judges had made a mistake and this person did not serve their purposes.  The next domino was the economy, which fell, but not for reasons attributable to the Republican Party but the ruling person, the falling domino was a most convenient explanation.

The 2008 election process is the fork in the road for the path of falling dominoes.  This is where the fallen dominoes will hit one or anther domino lying next in the path.  The two dominoes that are in the direct next path are called McCain and the second domino is Obama.  Let us hope that the Supreme Court does not intervene again and make the wrong domino fall.

Investment Business Daily Falls Far Short In Its Opinions.

Investment Business Daily Falls Far Short In Its Opinions.

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Investment Business Daily, or IBD, is devoted to investment facts and teaching you how to buy stocks and mutual funds.  For that purpose, it does a fine job.   Naturally you would expect a financial publication to have a Republican slant in its opinion section.  This publication, in our opinion, is for all practical purposes, devoid of any practical level of being unbiased in favor of the Republican viewpoint.  For this reason, it is our feeling that the opinion section of this newspaper, is an embarrassment to the field of journalism and the notion that a news vehicle try to provide a balanced viewpoint.   The opinion section allegedly tarnishes the sum total score for this paper.  For investment information we recommend this paper strongly.  The opinion section is best used for bird cage liner or fish wrap.

Apple Repairs Computer That Is Out Of Warantee

Apple Repairs Computer That Is Out Of Warantee

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We have a iMac 20 inch computer that was purchased September 2004.  Beginning the summer of 2008 it began to exhibit some disturbing symptoms.  It would not wake up from sleep mode.  The fans would race at high speed for hours.  Some times the computer would begin to shut itself off.  We took the computer in to the Genius Bar, at an Apple store, September 2008.  The technician looked the computer over and told us they would repair the unit for free even though we did not have any Apple insurance.  It seems that this computer had a serial number that fell within a range of computers with a known problem.  In about a week we got the computer back.  The receipt showed that the logic board and power supply ambient light sensor was replaced for no charge.  We have had the computer running for months now and the repair did solve the problem.   I wonder how many other computer manufacturers would repair a computer 4 years old.

Icom HS-51 Headset

Icom HS-51 Headset

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I have previously purchased Prime headsets for my hand held radio also called a handy talky or HT for short.  I need the headset for two city RACES events a year.  Problem is that the Prime microphone fails to function properly after two events.  This failure happened twice in two years.  Buying these headsets every year was getting expensive.  I called my local Ham Radio Outlet store and explained my problem.  The salesman suggested I consider buying the Icom HS-51. It was expensive $80 but came with some neat features.  I could not find any Internet review.  I was desperate so I decided to buy it.  I have two HT units and I just love my Icom O2AT.  It is 2 meters only, really old, large, and heavy but has some really neat features that make it ideal for bicycle mobile work. The options for providing a headset for that HT were limited.   In short, I found the HS-51 to be impressive.  It was very well designed and constructed.  But I have three minor complaints.  The switch unit rotates easily from the belt clip; will not stay in place.  The Prime unit also rotates but has a positive lock function for set rotation points.  The belt clip on the HS-51 is rather small while the Prime is large.  The Prime has a much better mic switch.  The switch is a much larger button and is activated on the large flat surface of the plastic case and that switch is easily found when bicycling.  The Prime unit, I did not have to look for the switch but my hand could easily find it.  The HS-51 has a very small switch along the side of its case so one has to squeeze the case to be able to apply the necessary pressure.  The switch is also used for TOT mode.  Press the switch once and the transmitter is on.  Press the switch again and it goes off.  The unit will automatically turn off after 2 to 4 minutes if you fail to hit the switch a second time.  Now that you think the Prime might be a better headset, let me now list the over the top features of the HS-51.  It has superb audio.  There is an audio gain control.  The headset folds up.  The earphone piece is not fixed but is on a long enough wire.  The unit has TOT, PTT and VOX activation for the microphone.  The mic and headset connectors are split so it marries with more HT units.  Wearing the headset for 5 hours was almost as comfortable as the Prime.  We recommend this unit.

Glossary:

Headset = In this instance, the term headset is not only listening function but the unit also has a microphone that can be held quite close out in front of the person’s mouth for good close private audio quality.
PTT = Push to talk is a very safe mode.  The operator presses a switch that turns on the transmitter while providing audio to the transmitter but when the operator stops pressing the button, the transmitter goes off.
RACES = Radio Amateur Civil Emergency Service.
TOT= Time out timer is a mode where the transmitter is turned on but will turn off after a set time.
VOX= Voice operated transmit depends upon an electronic circuit that senses when the operator talkes and thus turns on the transmitter and provides the audio out to the transmitter.  VOX is neat in that the operator does not have to press a switch allowing for hands free operation.  The down side is if the circuitry can activate when a person makes a noise that you do not want to go out over the air.   We do not recommend VOX for parades where there is high noise levels that would trigger the VOX to turn on at the wrong times.

Calculating Parent Audiance Size

Calculating Parent Audiance Size

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I was having a conversation with a PTA mother as to how many parents might attend a school event I was helping to plan.  She raised a point that was most shocking to me.  We had a set number of children that were comming to the event and I naturally calculated two parents for each child.  This PTA mom told me to calculate four parents for each child.  The reason was that so many children came from divorced parents.