I have been listening to the financial TV cable shows and the consensus I have been hearing is that there is about a 40% chance of a recession. It would appear that the financial “experts” might be getting this from their charts and graphs which come to them with some time lag.I had two separate conversations this past weekend (12-2-07). The first was with a corporate lawyer who has a pretty good range of clients in the inland empire of Southern California. He is convinced that he is seeing a recession right now. One example he sited was car sales. He told me that his new car dealerships are not doing well. When the public can not afford new cars they turn to used cars. His used car dealer clients are not doing well either. He said when it reaches down that far, things are not going well.
My second conversation was with a shipping salesman who tries to get large companies to sign agreements to go with his company. He has the same view, we are in a recession NOW.