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The United States Allegidly Failed To Predict Russian Invasion Into Crimea?

The United States Allegidly Failed To Predict Russian Invasion Into Crimea?

Looking at Politico application on my cell phone March 5, 2014, I was confused by reading that the United States did not expect that Putin would make a move into the Crimea.  Some reports state that the United States intelligence agencies did not pick up on this.  I am a bit confused because this should have been a real possibility if anyone took the time to look at a map and read some recent past history about the Crimea.  Putin is a pragmatic, self serving, ambitious oligarch.  The possibility that the Ukraine might attain freedom could spark a parallel outcome as the Arab spring and unravel Putins ambitions for a new Soviet Union where Putin plans to put all the former Soviet empire pieces back together.  Just imagine if the Ukrainian people were to be free of the oligarchs, have close ties to Europe and cut their Russian puppet strings.  Those factors would be unthinkable for a dictator like Putin.  The next factor is the Black Sea Naval base is at the southern end of the Ukraine.  Military logistic requirements may necessitate that a reliable causeway for men and materials be secured for the supply of that military base.  In short, Ukraine is a problem for Putin if he fails to fully control its politics and its people.  Any oligarch wants to maintain his fortune and power. Both go hand in hand.  Putin could not allow the resident oligarch, Viktor Fedorovych Yanukovych , to fall because oligarchs typically have the same goals, to pillage the country for its wealth for as long as possible.  Both men worked well together because they shared the same values of suppressing freedoms, controlling media, controlling the sham government process and dictating the direction and policies of the nation and eliminate any opposition.  Another factor that few have picked up on is that Putin is a bully, a liar and seeks self aggrandizement and will do anything to attain the goals for making himself a Czar for an expanded Soviet Union. Invading the Crimea is so fitting for Putin as it seems to solve his immediate concerns which are quit logical and predictable.  It is up the rest of the world to teach this dictator that his apparent clever invasion will make for a worse situation for him and his country if he comes out looking foolish by his people.  We can only hope that the Russian people will make a move against Putin if this plays out well for the Ukraine people.

Ukraine vs Russia – Dictatorship vs Freedom

Ukraine vs Russia – Dictatorship vs Freedom

Russian situation:
The current ruler of Russia, Vladimir Putin runs a authoritarian regime quite similar to a dictatorship which the Russian people seem never to get out from under.  He has allegedly reaped approximately 75 billion making Russia a plutocracy.   Russia also has quite a number of plutocracy individuals.  The smarter one’s have figured out how to live with Putin as a self determined dictator (that they can barely control).  His administration has led to some surprising good economic, political and social changes.  Putin may have expansion motivations and is antagonistic toward NATO for this reason.  NATO’s intention is to thwart possible Russian military expansion into Europe states some of which were former Soviet “members”.  One of Putin’s possible intention is to allegedly restore the former Soviet Empire.  Put another way, he wants to expand the current Russia by getting back portions that were allowed to break away.  The fear among the rest of Europe is his intentions may be further into Europe.

Wikipedia: Putin allegedly declared at a NATO-Russia summit in 2008 that if Ukraine joined NATO Russia could contend to annex the Ukrainian East and Crimea.

Ukraine situation:
The “former” leader of the Ukraine, Victor Yanukovych, not only was close to Putin in political thinking but allegedly raping his county of wealth.  The point here is that Yanukovych has three attractive items in his resume that attract Putin.  He is the alleged current legal (temperately deposed) leader.  He professes to support Putin’s expansion policies.  He is immensely rich.  He allegedly stole 12 billion, by plundering the wealth of his nation.  This “former” leader of the Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, professed he was open to the proposed creation of a Eurasian Union thus falling in line with Putin’s goals.  The Ukraine would thus come under the Russian government control and meeting one of Putin’s dreams of a solidified and expanded Soviet empire.  But, the Ukraine people are fed up with corruption, unemployment and inflation. It seems that the people of western Ukraine have seen the results of unrestricted thieving plutocracy.  They want a better life and are willing to fight.

Crimea situation:
Crimea is an immensely important strategic military site for Russia.  It houses the Russian Black Sea Fleet.  This nearly complete island just south of the Ukraine has been in turmoil in that Russia and Ukraine have had a couple of crisis situations take place over how this near island is administered.  The latest crisis, February 2014 came about with Ukraine dictating that only Ukrainian be the state language, a most stupid move.  Problem is that most of the Crimea citizens, 58% are ethnic Russians.

Summary:
The Russian military needs Crimea under their control.  Putin needs Crimea and would love to also to have Ukraine.  Ukraine wants Crimea back but they do not have any power to make this happen  except to rely upon some far away countries to apply trade and financial pressure.  Europe and the United States will dance across the floor with political postures making themselves look like they really care.  Putin respects power factors more than anything else.  Trade restrictions and condemnations by foreign governments mean nothing to him until it hurts in some way.   Putin will get whatever he wants.  He holds a powerful position.